AGP Executive Report

Logistics & Trade Disruption: Kazakhstan-linked crude flows are getting hit again as Black Sea attacks keep disrupting shipping and tankers, with CPC export operations described as intermittent and shipowners more cautious. E-commerce & Supply Chains: Wildberries’ warehouse network is under pressure after drone debris damaged a logistics complex in Russia, while Kazakhstan’s Trade Minister said Wildberries plans new warehouses—though the company insists it has no plan to move its main hubs outside Russia. Services Momentum: Kazakhstan’s services PMI rose to 54.1 in July, the highest in 12+ months, as new business picked up and input price pressure eased, even as hiring stayed cautious. Energy & Infrastructure: Kazakhstan is pushing transport upgrades to boost transit capacity, including the Beineu–Saksaulsk highway and corridor expansions, with completion targeted by 2029. Oil & Gas Policy: Kazakhstan scheduled a November e-auction for 26 oil and gas blocks, including exploration lots and two direct production fields. Aviation: Air Astana’s group says it expects to clear Pratt & Whitney GTF-related issues by summer 2027, after engine problems weighed on earlier results. Cross-border Tax: A new guideline aims to streamline cross-border taxation compliance for maritime, aviation and land transport.

Energy Integration & Nuclear Tech: At the Primakov Readings forum in Issyk-Kul, Russia’s RKDF head said Central Asia can’t build a common electricity market without deeper integration, including synchronized nuclear projects in Kazakhstan and Uzbekistan with hydropower expansion in Kyrgyzstan and Tajikistan, with Russian specialists. Oil & Fuel Security: Russia extended permission to produce/import/sell Euro-2 to Euro-4 gasoline until July 1, 2027 as drone strikes squeeze output; meanwhile, oil prices eased on Hormuz reopening hopes, but shipping risks remain. Aviation & Maintenance Costs: Air Astana reported Q2 revenue up 18.3% but a net loss for H1 as engine (GTF) issues drag on, with repairs expected to clear by summer 2027. Digital Infrastructure: Kazakhstan completed the offshore stage of the Trans-Caspian fiber-optic line, bringing the Aktau–Sumgayit cable ashore; onshore works and testing are set to finish this autumn. Transport & Logistics: Kuryk Port upgraded loading bridges, cutting rail-ferry processing from 18 to 12 hours and boosting capacity, strengthening the Trans-Caspian route; Kazakhstan also plans more oil and gas block auctions. Cyber & Governance: Kaspersky flagged new Windows backdoors (OctLurk/SilkLurk) targeting government and public institutions across Kazakhstan and neighbors. Environment & Industry Tension: Activists won court access to a confidential environmental report tied to restarting oil drilling near the Kokzhide water basin in Aktobe. Maritime Disruption: Black Sea attacks continue to hit tanker loadings and raise risks for global grain and oil flows.

Transport & Border Security: Kazakhstan will fully reconstruct road checkpoints in 2027, aiming to handle surging overland freight volumes (road revenue hit 1.5 trillion tenge last year) and streamline the eight Kyrgyz-Kazakh border crossings. Oil & Shipping Resilience: Caspian Pipeline Consortium crude loading resumed after July 30 attacks, with CPC receiving about 100,000 tons/day by Aug 1, while tanker costs jumped and exports still depend on vessel availability. Green Energy Deal: Full Vision Capital’s Hong Kong family office signed an MoU with Kazakhstan ministries and Alatau City to back sustainable aviation fuel, smart energy and advanced storage pilots. Aviation Connectivity: Air Astana boosts Guangzhou-Astana and Guangzhou-Almaty frequencies, while FlyArystan prepares its first direct Almaty–Chongqing route in September. E-commerce Logistics: Wildberries is building two Kazakhstan warehouse hubs (Almaty ~160,000 sq m; Astana ~100,000 sq m) for Q1 2027 operations, with no extra sites planned beyond the two projects. Energy Enforcement: Border Service stopped 1,808 cases of illegal fuel transport in July (150+ tons). Infrastructure Push: Tokayev launched construction of three strategic highways, calling roads “arteries of life” for Eurasia transit.

E-commerce & Logistics: Wildberries is ramping up in Kazakhstan with two new warehouse hubs—about 160,000 sq m in Almaty and 100,000 sq m in Astana—totaling 260,000 sq m, due to start operating in Q1 2027; the Trade Ministry says no extra facilities beyond these two are officially planned. Trade & Industry Support: Kazakhstan is pushing higher-value non-resource exports, including a new export-support push to get Kazakh finished goods onto major global retail chains (Lulu, Carrefour, Gross, Panda, Spinneys, etc.), alongside expanded export missions and credit/insurance backing. Energy & Oil Supply: Oil prices swung as US-Iran talks raised and then tempered hopes for Hormuz reopening; meanwhile OPEC+ agreed to increase September output by 188,000 bpd. Food Security: Kazakhstan says it is self-sufficient in most staples (sunflower oil, flour, rice, potatoes, onions, carrots, pasta, beef, lamb) and is targeting an end to poultry meat imports. Digital Connectivity: Trans-Caspian fiber-optic cable laying has begun between Azerbaijan and Kazakhstan, with commissioning targeted for end-2026. Water Management: Kazakhstan is expanding digital flood forecasting and groundwater monitoring to move from reactive to anticipatory water control. Manufacturing Pulse: A PMI shows Kazakhstan manufacturing conditions deepened into contraction in July, with new orders falling sharply.

E-commerce & Logistics: Kazakhstan’s Trade and Integration Ministry says Wildberries will expand in Astana and Almaty with 260,000 sq m of new warehouse space under construction, aiming for commissioning in Q1 2027, while about 46,000 sq m is already leased. Domestic Trade Protection: Kazakhstan’s PM reported information attacks aimed at discrediting Kazakh goods, especially food and confectionery, and ordered a unified “Made in Kazakhstan” campaign to defend local producers and improve access to retail. Energy Cooperation: Kazakhstan confirmed readiness to strengthen regional power partnership with Kyrgyzstan, focusing on electricity supply, transit, and water-energy coordination. Renewables & Power System: Kazakhstan approved a hydropower development plan through 2035 to stabilize a growing renewables grid, after renewables hit 6.43% of electricity in 2024. Oil & Markets: OPEC+ agreed to raise September output quotas by 188,000 bpd, while oil prices slid on hopes of US-Iran talks easing supply risks. AI & Talent: Kazakhstan hosted an international AI Olympiad in Astana, pushing a “human-first” approach to innovation and digital transformation. Regional Connectivity: Kazakhstan and Azerbaijan-backed film production continues to link the region’s cultural industries, with Jackie Chan arriving in Baku for Armour of God 4 filming.

Oil & Energy Markets: Oil slid about 5% to a three-week low after Trump postponed a fresh Iran attack, reviving hopes for talks and easing Strait of Hormuz supply fears; meanwhile OPEC+ Policy: seven core members including Kazakhstan agreed to raise September output by 188,000 bpd, continuing the rollback of 2023 voluntary cuts. Oil Infrastructure & Security: Kazakhstan’s CPC-linked flows remain a key risk focus as Ukraine-linked drone attacks keep disrupting Black Sea and Russian refining logistics, with Kazakhstan denying any full CPC shutdown. Transport & Connectivity: Kazakhstan is pushing the Middle Corridor with new momentum: construction has started on the Trans-Caspian fiber-optic backbone between Kazakhstan and Azerbaijan, and Tokayev backed the Beineu–Saksaulsk “Aral-Caspian Highway” as a faster China–Europe freight bridge. Mining & Industry: Kazatomprom reported Uranium Output: H1 production up 9% y/y to 13,291 tons, supporting Kazakhstan’s nuclear fuel role. AI & Digital Economy: Kazakhstan hosted the IOAI in Astana, with leaders stressing human-centered AI and ecosystem building; Kaspi.kz and others also highlighted AI for real services and media. Renewables: Kazakhstan’s Solar Growth: installed PV capacity passed 1.37 GW by Q2 2026, with renewables generation up strongly since 2022.

Investor Climate Boost: Kazakhstan climbed to 53rd in the “Safest Countries for Investors” 2026 ranking and saw H1 investment inflows rise 9.6% to over $20B, with growth increasingly driven by manufacturing, construction, transport and logistics. OPEC+ and Oil Linkages: OPEC+ approved a September quota increase of 188,000 bpd (including Kazakhstan), completing the rollback of 2023 voluntary cuts—though analysts warn shipping and regional disruptions may limit real supply gains; oil prices also slid after Trump paused Iran strike plans. CPC Export Watch: Kazakhstan’s energy authorities and Chevron said the Caspian Pipeline Consortium is still receiving crude and loading tankers after recent attacks, rejecting claims of a full shutdown—key for oil exports and refinery-linked fuel flows. Uranium Output: Kazatomprom reported H1 uranium production up 9% YoY to 13,291 tons, reinforcing nuclear fuel momentum. Agro-Industry Push: Kostanay region is rolling out 42 agricultural investment projects worth 553B tenge, including new processing and storage capacity. Cross-Border Trade Pressure: With Wildberries logistics hit by strikes, Kyrgyz clothing sellers are actively seeking entry into Kazakhstan marketplaces, while Kazakh officials say no official Wildberries warehouse relocation request has been received. Regional Industry Deals: Almaty Region unveiled a pipeline of 283 investment projects worth about 8T tenge, targeting jobs and upgrades across agro-processing, steel, and industrial infrastructure.

Energy Markets: OPEC+ agreed to raise September oil production quotas by 188,000 barrels per day, completing the rollback of 2023 voluntary cuts; the move includes Kazakhstan among the seven core members, but analysts note the real impact may be limited while the Strait of Hormuz remains constrained and export disruptions persist. Kazakhstan Industry & Resources: A new push to attract investment into Kazakhstan’s rare earths faces familiar hurdles—landlocked geography, legacy equipment, and weaker refining capacity compared with China—raising questions about how fast the country can become a credible link in the critical minerals supply chain. Agribusiness & Food Processing: Kostanay plans 42 agriculture investment projects worth 553.1 billion tenge, targeting deeper food processing (including a pasta plant) and modern storage to boost export competitiveness. Logistics & Trade Risk: Kazakhstan’s crude exports remain under pressure as attacks around the Caspian Pipeline Consortium terminal disrupt output, highlighting how geopolitical shocks can quickly outweigh formal production targets.

Oil & OPEC+ Policy: OPEC+ is set to approve a September quota increase of about 188,000 bpd as it finishes unwinding voluntary cuts, then likely pause further hikes for at least three months while it reviews capacity for 2027—key for Kazakhstan as a core member. CPC Export Disruption Watch: Kazakhstan’s energy ministry says a full shutdown of the Caspian Pipeline Consortium is not on the table; CPC temporarily suspended pipeline operations but continues receiving oil and filling tanks (about 100,000 tons/day from Aug 1), with loading volumes depending on tanker availability after drone attacks. Caspian/Black Sea Shipping Pressure: Ukraine’s drone campaign is increasingly hitting commercial logistics and ports tied to Kazakhstan-linked energy flows, raising risks for crude exports and broader regional trade. Retail Logistics Shock: Wildberries’ potential warehouse relocation to Kazakhstan is being discussed amid strikes; Kazakhstan officials say no official applications were received, but sources warn prices could rise if goods shift via Kazakhstan. Trade & Connectivity: Astana hosted senior officials’ talks for the first “Central Asia–Korea” summit, aligning on a “Seoul Declaration” and flagship projects spanning energy, transport, logistics, and digital tech. Aviation Cargo Step: Cathay Pacific Cargo’s first scheduled technical stop in Astana signals growth for Kazakhstan’s air-freight transit role between Asia and Europe.

Caspian Pipeline Consortium Update: Kazakhstan’s Energy Ministry denied a full CPC shutdown, saying operations were temporarily suspended on July 31 but oil continues to be received and tank farms filled; from Aug. 1 volumes are back at about 100,000 tons/day, with any ramp-up tied to tanker availability. Black Sea Shipping Pressure: The CPC situation is linked to drone attacks near the Novorossiysk terminal, while Russia and Ukraine trade accusations over strikes affecting civilian and energy logistics. Middle Corridor Logistics: Kazakhstan Temir Zholy launched its first multimodal mineral fertilizer shipment from Ekibastuz to the UK via the Trans-Caspian route, using rail plus sea to reach Felixstowe—another push to diversify export corridors. Air Cargo Push: Cathay Pacific Cargo made its first scheduled technical stop in Astana, with five flights a week initially, aiming to grow Astana’s role as an Asia-Europe transit hub. Digital/Low-Altitude Tech: Astana’s “autonomous delivery” demo debuted for Games of the Future visitors via QR ordering and drone drop-offs at smart parcel lockers. Business Climate: Kazakhstan’s SME sector added about 550,000 entities in H1 2026 as self-employed legalization expanded the base. Regional Tech Cooperation: OTS Secretary General met Kazakhstan’s AI minister to advance the OTS-SAT satellite project, targeting a 2027 launch.

Caspian Pipeline Consortium (CPC) Update: Kazakhstan’s Energy Ministry says a complete CPC shutdown is “not being considered,” after a temporary suspension on July 31; CPC resumed accepting about 100,000 tons/day from Aug. 1, with volumes tied to tanker arrivals. Middle Corridor Logistics: KTZ Temir Zholy launched its first multimodal mineral fertilizer shipment from Ekibastuz to the UK via the Trans-Caspian “Middle Corridor,” using rail across Kazakhstan, sea across the Caspian, then onward to Georgian ports and Felixstowe. SME Growth: Kazakhstan’s SME sector added about 550,000 entities in H1 2026, driven by legalization of self-employed workers and reduced “artificial fragmentation,” with tax reform and fair regulation on the agenda. Low-Altitude Delivery in Astana: Alatau Advance Air Group debuted a Central Asia-first autonomous drone delivery system at Games of the Future venues, letting users order via QR and receive goods through smart parcel lockers. EV Charging Rollout: BYD and Astana Motors agreed to build a nationwide ultra-fast EV charging network using BYD Flash Charge, starting with Almaty before expanding along key corridors. Energy Security Context: Oil prices jumped on renewed Strait of Hormuz shipping risks, while CPC-related attacks and Black Sea chokepoints keep Kazakhstan export routes in focus. Regional Integration: Kazakhstan and Azerbaijan’s Central Asia consultative meeting format gained momentum with Azerbaijan’s full participation, with Tokayev stressing investment, industry, and a unified transport-and-logistics system.

Energy Security Shock: Oil prices jumped after Iran claimed it attacked tankers in the Strait of Hormuz, while shipping data and maritime monitors were not confirming the incidents; the move adds fresh pressure to Kazakhstan’s export routes as traders weigh chokepoint risk. Caspian Connectivity: Kazakhstan and Azerbaijan have started laying the Trans-Caspian fiber-optic cable from Baku toward Aktau, with testing and commissioning planned by end-2026, strengthening the Digital Silk Way. Mining & Industry Upgrade: Kazakhstan approved a new Balkhash copper smelter to boost refined copper output by about 50% (to 800,000+ tonnes/year) and expand value-added exports, with construction starting in 2027. Smart Cities Reality Check: Almaty ranked 38th in a global Intelligent Cities Index, scoring well on strategy and infrastructure but lagging on “ways of working,” highlighting governance and delivery gaps. Regional Diplomacy & Tourism: Central Asian leaders and Azerbaijan signed the Cholpon-Ata Declaration and backed ideas like a unified tourist visa to deepen trade, transport, energy cooperation, and mobility. Cyber Risk: Kaspersky reports suspected Chinese-speaking hackers using new backdoors (OctLurk/SilkLurk) targeting Central Asian government and logistics organizations. Climate Grants: A Central Asia-wide call is open for climate resilience and clean-energy projects, with concept notes due Sept 14, 2026.

Caspian Energy Security: Caspian Pipeline Consortium (CPC) suspended oil loading again after Ukrainian drone strikes hit tankers near the Novorossiysk terminal, marking the third shutdown in a month and threatening Kazakhstan’s main export artery that carries most of Tengiz crude. Power Demand: Kazakhstan’s Ministry of Energy says a heatwave is pushing electricity consumption higher, with the system operating normally but peak pressure rising as cooling loads surge. Digital Connectivity: A specialized vessel has started installing the Trans-Caspian fiber-optic cable from Baku toward Aktau, aiming for full commercial service by end-2026 and strengthening the Middle Corridor’s digital backbone. Critical Minerals & Industry: Ferro-Alloy Resources appointed Peter Secker as CEO to drive vanadium production in Kazakhstan and advance downstream and by-product testwork tied to US critical-minerals supply needs. Aviation & Infrastructure: Almaty airport is repositioning as a regional aviation hub as QIC exits its stake in the airport project, while Kazakhstan continues expanding capacity and efficiency. Energy Cooperation: Kazakhstan and Russia are in talks to process Russian crude in Kazakh refineries, sell part domestically, and return some products to Russia amid Russia’s refinery strain. Transport Trade: The “Slavic Caravan” direct rail freight service launched on the Belarus–Russia–Kazakhstan–Uzbekistan corridor, cutting transit times and enabling smaller container shipments. Electric Mobility/Consumer Tech: Li Auto officially launched the all-new Li L9 in Uzbekistan, signaling deeper Central Asian market push for localized EV supply.

Caspian & Black Sea Energy Disruption: Kazakhstan’s Energy Ministry says CPC oil loading was halted after a drone attack on the tanker Nissos Sifnos near the terminal; another tanker (Marathi) was also hit, with no casualties or spill reported, while CPC facilities continue operating. Energy Diplomacy: Kazakhstan and Russia are in talks to process Russian crude in Kazakh refineries, sell products domestically, then ship part back to Russia to keep refining capacity and local supplies stable amid Russia’s fuel shortages. Market Pulse: Oil prices stayed supported but volatile as Middle East tensions and shipping risks lifted risk premiums, while Kazakh crude exports via Novorossiysk faced fresh pauses tied to tanker attacks. Smart Cities & AI: Astana signed an agreement with DEC40 to advance smart city and AI projects, including plans to connect urban data systems and build an AI-driven digital ecosystem. Housing Finance: VTB reports over 10 billion rubles in contractor loans for individual housing construction, scaling escrow-backed financing for small and medium builders. Trade Corridors: Azerbaijan expects Middle Corridor freight to rise 17% to 5.5 million tons in 2026, with Kazakhstan and the region central to the China–Europe transit push. Logistics & E-commerce: Kazakhstan’s Trade Ministry says it has not received a formal Wildberries request for extra warehouses, but would consider it under national and EAEU rules. Transport Policy: Astana’s LRT will introduce new fare options from August 1, keeping the single-trip price at 200 tenge while expanding day and multi-trip passes.

Caspian Pipeline Consortium Update: CPC halted oil loading near Novorossiysk after two more tanker attacks, even as pipeline facilities kept operating—raising fresh uncertainty for Kazakhstan’s crude export flow. Energy Diplomacy: Romania’s interim PM Ilie Bolojan called Kazakhstan’s PM to discuss CPC security and protect uninterrupted crude supplies for Petromidia refinery. U.S.-Kazakhstan Call: US Sec. of State Marco Rubio spoke with FM Yermek Kosherbayev on CPC reliability, energy security, critical minerals, and preparations for Tokayev’s G20 visit. Housing Tech Reform: Kazakhstan Housing Company launched a KHC.Analytics beta platform to centralize housing and shared-equity construction data, aiming to boost transparency for investors and homebuyers. Transport & Connectivity: Pakistan offered Kazakhstan access to Karachi, Port Qasim and Gwadar as cargo transit hubs, while Kazakhstan and Pakistan also discussed port and logistics cooperation. Digital Kazakhstan: Tokayev said Kazakhstan is building a fully digital state, citing the Digital Code, AI law, and the AI Sana program. Astana Event: “Games of the Future 2026” opened in Astana, blending esports and physical sports with 800+ athletes from 34 countries.

Energy Security & Oil Exports: US Secretary of State Marco Rubio and Kazakhstan’s FM Yermek Kosherbayev discussed uninterrupted Caspian Pipeline Consortium (CPC) exports after Black Sea drone attacks, with CPC shipping 70.5m tonnes in 2025. War’s Economic Spillover: Ukraine is shifting from refineries to “hard-to-replace” components and is also striking Wildberries logistics, forcing evacuations and raising talk of state support; Kazakhstan’s Trade Ministry says it is monitoring any Wildberries warehouse relocation requests. Logistics & Trade Routes: KTZ Express exported Kazakh mineral fertilisers to the UK via the Middle Corridor (rail + Caspian + ports), aiming to diversify routes and cut delivery risk. Infrastructure Modernization: Kazakhstan plans to double the pace of energy and utilities repairs under a 13tn tenge modernization program, targeting 84,000 km of engineering networks and digital oversight. Maritime Connectivity: Pakistan offered Kazakhstan access to Karachi, Port Qasim and Gwadar for cargo transit and possible free-zone projects. AI Governance: Kazakhstan is among founding members of WAICO signed in Shanghai, positioning AI rules as a new geopolitical battleground. Sports-Tech Showcase: The Games of the Future 2026 opened in Astana, blending elite sport with esports and drawing 800+ participants.