AGP Executive Report

AI and Manufacturing: Kazakhstan is positioning artificial intelligence as a tool to lift factory productivity and move manufacturing up the value chain, while partners plan a digital Silk Road for AI infrastructure. Aviation: Air Astana expects Pratt & Whitney’s GTF Advantage engine to become standard across its future Airbus A320neo-family fleet. Technology: Kazakhstan has begun developing microchips domestically, a step toward building its own hardware industry. Energy: Renewable generation rose 20% to 7.8 billion kWh in the first nine months of 2026; the government is also targeting fuel self-sufficiency by 2030 and exports to Central Asian neighbours. Trade and Transport: Kazakhstan is weighing another major oil export route, while the expanded Central Asia–Azerbaijan summit format backed transport links and a green-power corridor. Agriculture: Wheat exports reached a record as rail shipments increased, and farmers stocked more than 41 million tonnes of livestock feed for winter.

Power: Kazakhstan’s renewable generation rose 20% year on year to 7.8 billion kWh in the first nine months. The country also plans 4.3 GW of new conventional capacity in 2028–29. Fuel and Oil: Astana aims to export finished petroleum products to Central Asia by 2030 and has extended its oil and fuel supply agreement with Russia through 2028. Oil producers are also studying a new Trans-Caspian export route. Agriculture: Rice production climbed 18.6% in January–August, while farmers stocked more than 41 million tonnes of livestock feed ahead of winter. Industry and Technology: Kazakhstan is beginning domestic microchip development and has signed a partnership to build AI infrastructure linking data centres, satellites and a Trans-Caspian fibre-optic cable. Trade Routes: Kazakhstan invited Italian rail and logistics firms to join Middle Corridor projects involving Aktau and Kuryk ports.

AI Infrastructure: Kazakhstan and international partners are planning a “Digital Silk Road” linking data centres, satellite computing and the Trans-Caspian fibre-optic cable, with pilot projects for industrial AI and robotics. Energy and Transport: Talks with the UK and Belgium focused on energy, logistics and transport infrastructure, alongside investment in green technologies and higher-value processing of critical minerals. Oman Partnership: Kazakhstan and Oman signed eight agreements covering investment, energy and logistics; plans include a $150 million joint fund, while Oman is set to join the Eurasian Development Bank. Oil and Industry: Kazakhstan is weighing a second major oil export route and aims to ship 7 million tonnes a year through the Baku-Tbilisi-Ceyhan pipeline. The country also plans digital twins at 60% of major enterprises by 2028 to improve output and cut energy losses. Agriculture: Wheat exports hit a record as rail shipments rose, while Kazakhstan signalled it could help meet Gulf food-security needs. Trade with Afghanistan reached $581 million in January-July, up 2.4 times year on year.

Investment Shift: Kazakhstan is moving from chasing foreign capital volume to backing projects that build production capacity, deepen processing, expand exports and strengthen local supply chains, as Deputy FM Ardak Zebeshev says the next competition is for specific parts of value chains. Oil & OPEC+ Watch: OPEC+ kept November output targets unchanged despite Gulf supply risks tied to the Iran war; the group includes Kazakhstan among the seven key members. Energy Prices: Brent jumped above $100 as traders weighed intensifying supply threats, including Middle East infrastructure concerns and a Gulf storm risk. Trade & Connectivity: The UAE–EAEU Economic Partnership Agreement entered into force, giving preferential access that covers most trade value and includes Kazakhstan; separately, Kazakhstan and Azerbaijan are set to launch a new Aktau–Sumgayit fibre-optic link to strengthen Middle Corridor digital capacity. Food & Logistics: Kazakhstan set a wheat export record at 8.87m tons (Sep 2025–Aug 2026), with rail shipments rising and Central Asia remaining the main destination. Industry Expansion: KT&G started full operations at a new Indonesia plant, lifting its Indonesia capacity to 35bn cigarettes and completing a five-country production network that includes Kazakhstan. Nuclear Agenda: Kazakhstan’s PM met on implementing instructions for developing the nuclear industry, including work on new uranium sites and expanding the mineral resource base. Regional Growth Outlook: EBRD expects Central Asia growth to stay strong in 2026–27, but flags energy costs, water scarcity and tighter financing as headwinds for Kazakhstan and neighbors.

Middle Corridor Push: World Bank-backed reporting says the Trans-Caspian “Middle Corridor” could multiply Asia-Europe freight by 2040, but Kazakhstan and partners still need big funding plus faster border and digital coordination. Oman-Kazakhstan Deal Flow: Sultan Haitham’s state visit in Astana produced five agreements and 10 MoUs spanning investment, aviation, finance, energy, logistics, agriculture, and tech, including a joint investment fund and a Kazakhstan-Oman business council. Digital Qazaqstan in Energy: Kazakhstan’s Ministry of Energy is rolling out AI and digital twins to cut accidents and losses, with pilots at KazMunayGas and targets for scaling across the fuel and power sector. Cross-Border Trade Hubs: Kazakhstan’s trade hubs are moving into implementation, with the Khorgos gateway expanding projects, jobs, and logistics capacity. Caspian Monitoring: Japan funds a $3m UNDP project to improve monitoring of shrinking Caspian Sea levels, with focus on Kazakhstan’s shallow northern basin. Earth Observation Satellites: Kazakhstan plans six new satellites to boost monitoring for fires, floods, and illegal activity. Defense Oversight: A Defense Ministry inspection led to 13 criminal cases after servicemen deaths during Caspian exercises. Health Watch (Russia): WHO says the Irkutsk plague scare has not become an outbreak, while Kazakhstan tightens border checks over the situation.

Omani-Kazakh Deal Push: President Tokayev and Sultan Haitham signed five agreements and 10 MoUs covering investment protection, EDB cooperation, air transport, and a new Oman-Kazakhstan business council, with talks also targeting energy, transport, agriculture, IT and digitalization. Digital Energy Overhaul: Under Digital Qazaqstan, the Energy Ministry says AI and digital twins will cut fuel and power accidents by 25% and slash energy losses up to 90%, with 45 AI projects already in the pipeline. Smart City Rollout: Officials say Smart City tech is growing but fragmented; a new unified AI-and-data governance framework aims to scale shared solutions nationwide, with coverage targets rising to 50% by 2027 and 70% by 2028. Air Mobility Plan: Kazakhstan is moving from pilots to commercial air taxi flights in 2028, after legislative changes and demonstration flights, alongside expanded drone delivery plans for 2027. Agriculture Trade Shock: Buckwheat imports from Russia jumped 18-fold in volume in early 2026, raising concerns for domestic producers as Russian surpluses find a duty-free outlet. Regional Trade Integration: The UAE-EAEU Economic Partnership Agreement entered into force, offering preferential access across 86% of tariff lines and aiming to lift trade toward $50bn by 2032. Nuclear & Safety Watch: Russia staged a major Beloyarsk nuclear emergency drill, while Kazakhstan and Kyrgyzstan tightened border quarantine checks after the Irkutsk plague scare. Industry & Transport: Kazakhstan and Azerbaijan plan high-capacity Caspian cargo rail ferries for up to 120 wagons at once. AI Culture Spotlight: Astana AI Film Festival crowned Latvian filmmaker Nikolay Shestak with a $450,000 Grand Prix.

Construction & Infrastructure: Kazakhstan’s construction firm Tereze posted 615.4 billion tenge net profit in 2025 (down 34%), while authorities plan two new Chinese-backed manufacturing plants in Turkistan before year-end. Transport & Logistics: Kazakhstan and Azerbaijan are designing high-capacity Caspian cargo ferries for up to 120 rail wagons at once; Kazakhstan, Uzbekistan and the UAE signed an MoU for a rail corridor to Pakistan via Afghanistan. Energy & Industry: Development Bank of Kazakhstan approved ~57 billion tenge for a Turkistan wind farm; Kazakhstan is pushing oil refining capacity to 39 million tonnes annually and raised excise duties on petroleum products; oversized pyrolysis equipment arrived for the Silleno polyethylene plant. Agriculture & Food Processing: Oral’s Kubley cannery will invest $25m in a cattle feedlot and fodder base; Kazakhstan’s crop mix shifts as grain share falls and oilseeds expand to 5.2m hectares; inflation eased to 9.3% y/y in September. AI in Industry: A study says most industrial AI projects in Kazakhstan stay in pilots, with 58.8% not yet scaled. Trade & Aviation: Aktau International Airport targets 100,000 tonnes with a $600m cargo and MRO expansion starting early 2027.

Rail Connectivity: Kazakhstan, Uzbekistan and the UAE signed an MoU to study a new Kazakhstan–Uzbekistan–Afghanistan–Pakistan railway corridor that could open Central Asia to Pakistan’s Arabian Sea ports. Nuclear & Mining: Kazakhstan’s PM discussed exploring new uranium sites and expanding the mineral resource base under the 2050 nuclear strategy, with Kazatomprom set for large-scale geological work. Oil & Gas: OPEC+ (including Kazakhstan) kept November crude output targets unchanged as Iran-linked risks keep Brent above $100; the group meets again on Nov. 1 and the JMMC flagged the long cost of repairing damaged energy infrastructure. Oil Exports: Kazakhstan is pushing BTC pipeline crude volumes toward 7 million mt/year, with talks focused on commercial terms and potential step-ups over the next few years. Roads & Transport: Kazakhstan modernized 19,100 km of roads over three years, with 2026 roadworks exceeding 11,000 km. Digital Infrastructure: Kazakhstan’s Kazakhtelecom/KT-Telecom/FireBird AI signed to build a data centre in the country. Defense Aviation: Airbus delivered Kazakhstan’s second A400M, expanding heavy-lift transport capability alongside the C-295 fleet. AI & Media: Astana AI Film Festival wrapped with 8,067 entries from 125 countries; Latvia won the $450,000 Grand Prix.

Oil & Energy Policy: OPEC+ (including Kazakhstan) agreed to keep November crude output targets unchanged for a second straight month, citing tight markets and Middle East risks that keep Brent above $100/bbl; the group will review again on Nov. 1 and maintain September 2026 required levels. AI for Industry: NVIDIA is pitching “digital twins” and Physical AI to Kazakhstan’s mining and manufacturing firms, arguing it can cut downtime and fuel use by simulating operations and catching costly setup errors before construction and launch. Transport & Logistics: Kazakhstan, Uzbekistan and the UAE signed an MoU to study a new railway corridor linking Central Asia through Afghanistan to Pakistan’s seaports, aiming to expand trade and investment via feasibility work. Bilateral Economic Ties: Astana is preparing for Oman’s Sultan Haitham bin Tarik state visit, with Kazakhstan-Oman talks expected to cover investment and cooperation across multiple sectors. Culture & Media Tech: The Astana AI Film Festival wrapped up with Latvian filmmaker Nikolay Shestak winning the $450,000 grand prize, while Kazakhstan’s Myrzakhan Zhumakhan took Best Character.

Oil & Energy: OPEC+ agreed to keep oil output targets unchanged for November, with Kazakhstan among the seven core members meeting to review market conditions; a separate Reuters report says the decision was made in principle as Iran-related export disruptions continue. Energy Connectivity: The UAE signed a trilateral MoU with Kazakhstan and Uzbekistan for the Central Asia–South Asia railway project, aiming to strengthen trade corridors and regional integration. Digital & AI Push: Kazakhstan’s PM Bektenov said the Data Center Valley megaproject is under active construction (up to 1 GW) and highlighted a “data embassy” approach, while AI & Digital Bridge 2026 named winners including eGov.GPT and QazCode. Industrial Tech R&D: Kazakhstan plans three joint R&D centers in energy, AI/data storage, and digital solutions with partners including PowerChina and Fudan University. Agri-Food & Manufacturing: Carlsberg Kazakhstan opened a $344M non-alcoholic beverage plant in Almaty region with up to 1B liters annual capacity and plans to raise local sourcing. Regional Cooperation: Kazakhstan and Mongolia discussed expanding cooperation across energy, nuclear, digitalization, finance, agriculture, mining, and transport/logistics. Geopolitics Impacting Industry: Reports say a Russian drone attack damaged an Indian-run pharma plant in Ukraine (Kusum Group), with losses estimated at Rs 400 crore.

AI & Digital Policy: Kazakhstan’s PM Bektenov says the Digital Code and AI law are now in place, while the Data Center Valley megaproject in Ekibastuz is under active construction with up to 1 GW capacity and “data embassy” mechanisms to support AI, cloud and new digital industries. R&D Push: Kazakhstan plans three joint R&D centers in energy, applied AI and digital data storage with Chinese partners, aiming to turn research into sector-ready solutions. AI Governance at G20: President Tokayev backs the “Washington Model” for international AI safety and wants Kazakhstan to present its vision for global AI regulation at the G20. Industry Awards: AI & Digital Bridge 2026 named eGov.GPT (GovTech), Aventa/QazCode (corporate AI transformation) and Higgsfield AI (international breakthrough), highlighting practical AI adoption. Energy Corridor: Siemens Energy and Green Corridor Alliance signed an MoU for Trans-Caspian Green Energy Corridor transmission systems, linking Central Asia renewables to European markets. Beverage Manufacturing: Carlsberg Kazakhstan opened a $344M non-alcoholic plant in Almaty region with up to 1B liters annual capacity and plans to expand local sourcing. Diplomacy & Trade: Oman’s Sultan will visit Astana to discuss new cooperation areas; Kazakhstan also moves to deepen ties with Hungary.

AI Governance & Industry Modernization: President Tokayev backed the “Washington Model” for safe AI, pushing Kazakhstan to draft concrete proposals for a G20-led international initiative and possible UN-backed treaty, while stressing AI as a tool to boost labor productivity and industrial modernization. AI Ecosystem Build-Out: Deputy PM Zhaslan Madiyev outlined a full-stack AI roadmap—computing, data centers, connectivity, satellite tech, startups and digital public services—with ethical safeguards and plans to scale local champions. Digital Talent Push: Kazakhstan’s digital nomad program drew 1,500+ IT specialists from 30 countries, alongside new tech projects like QAZBOT and the digital Alatau City. Energy & Infrastructure Reality Check: A Data Center Valley cluster in Ekibastuz targets ~50 MW first, with ambitions up to 1 GW, raising questions about power and water capacity. Regional Trade & Transport Integration: EAEU prime ministers met in Belarus to advance transport corridors, electronic document systems at maritime checkpoints, and priority rail projects. Agriculture & Food Supply: Kazakhstan is expanding oilseed acreage to 5.2m hectares, securing 40m+ tonnes of fodder for winter, and commissioning more vegetable storage facilities. Bilateral Economic Links: Oman’s Sultan Haitham will visit Astana to discuss new cooperation areas, while Kazakhstan-Hungary ties get a fresh diplomatic push. Energy Corridor Cooperation: Siemens Energy and the Green Corridor Alliance signed an MoU for Trans-Caspian electricity transmission work with Kazakhstan-Germany forum momentum.

AI for Industry & Education: President Tokayev backed AI-driven industrial modernization and called for measurable productivity gains, pointing to manufacturing growth of 8.4% in Jan–Aug and urging AI upgrades across production chains; he also supported a pilot to introduce AI into secondary education, starting with 10 rural schools in Sept 2026 and scaling to 500 by April 2027. AI Governance at G20: Kazakhstan plans to present its vision for international AI regulation at G20, endorsing a “Washington model” for safe and responsible AI that could feed into a UN-backed framework. Energy & Refining Plans: Kazakhstan is selecting sites for a new up to 10 mln-ton refinery complex and aims to lift total refining capacity to 39 mln tonnes annually by expanding existing plants and pipelines. Agriculture Supply Boost: Kazakhstan is expanding oilseed acreage to 5.2 mln hectares, securing over 40 mln tonnes of fodder for wintering, and planning 15 more vegetable storage facilities before year-end. Manufacturing Investment: Carlsberg Kazakhstan opened a $344m beverage plant in Almaty region to produce PepsiCo-licensed brands for Kazakhstan and Kyrgyzstan, targeting 1 bln litres annually and 230+ jobs. Regional Connectivity: PM Bektenov pushed for EAEU digital transport corridors during the Eurasian Intergovernmental Council session. Trade/Logistics Disruption: CPC crude exports fell over 7% y/y in Jan–Sep 2026 due to drone strikes on CPC facilities and outages at major Kazakh fields.

AI & Digital Economy: Kazakhstan is pushing a full-stack AI plan across energy, chips, cloud access, large language models and applied solutions, while stressing responsible regulation and international tech cooperation. Investment & Data Infrastructure: The Data Center Valley project in Ekibastuz is drawing interest from General Atlantic, as Kazakhstan builds out its AI computing base. Energy & Oil Policy: OPEC+ is expected to keep November output targets unchanged, with Kazakhstan among the core producers watching how real supply lags quotas. Agri & Food Security: Kazakhstan remains a top global wheat producer while shifting acreage toward oilseeds; harvest progress and export capacity are in focus. Trade & Logistics: Denmark and Kazakhstan are deepening trade and investment, including Carlsberg’s major Almaty-area production expansion, while Middle Corridor stakeholders push faster, more predictable Trans-Caspian freight. Regional Cooperation: Mongolia and Kazakhstan agreed on a 2025–2027 roadmap to lift trade to $500m, including logistics links and a planned meat processing push. Industry Tech & Robotics: NVIDIA highlights “physical AI” as a growth driver for manufacturing, logistics, agriculture and energy, linking simulation and robotics competitiveness. Space & Education: A Kazakh student satellite project reached orbit after years of school-led engineering work.

AI Governance & Industry Skills: President Kassym-Jomart Tokayev told AI & Digital Bridge 2026 that technology must serve humanity and not create new dividing lines, warning against overregulation and stressing the need for a national scientific and engineering school, with Qazaq AI Research University and an AI+X model aimed at applying AI in industry, energy, healthcare, finance and public administration. AI in Media & Education: Kazakhstan’s President’s TV and Radio Complex and Al Jazeera expand educational projects, including proposals for a joint “Talent Lab” and a permanent “Window to Kazakhstan” content section for Al Jazeera Plus. Logistics & Trade Infrastructure: Rhenus Group and Aktau International Sea Trade Port are pushing a trimodal container terminal in Aktau to link sea, rail and road and boost Kazakhstan’s role on the Trans-Caspian route; separate reporting also flags container transport hurdles for Kazakh exports. Agriculture & Food Security: Kazakhstan is advancing drought insurance payouts (5.1bn tenge) and pushing grain exports to 15.5m tonnes, while imposing an apple import ban to protect domestic growers. Energy & Renewables: Development Bank of Kazakhstan financing supports a new 70 MW solar park in Kyzylorda (phased, with storage on Shieli-2) to stabilize output and strengthen grid reliability. Mining & Industrial Projects: QazaqGaz and ExxonMobil discussed joint hydrocarbon exploration, while Kazakhstan also moves to reimburse industrial enterprises (425.3m tenge) and continues heating-season preparations. Middle Corridor Momentum: A World Bank forum in Georgia highlights how coordinated investments and reforms could make the Middle Corridor more efficient and competitive by 2040.

Middle Corridor Push: A new World Bank Group report says Trans-Caspian/Middle Corridor upgrades could more than triple trade volumes, cut travel times and add about 2 million jobs by 2040—if countries pair infrastructure with faster trade and transport reforms. Rail Connectivity (CASA): Kazakhstan, Uzbekistan and the UAE signed an MoU to jointly study a CASA railway corridor to Pakistan’s seaports, with a working group to assess technical, economic and financing steps. Germany Industrial Tie-Up: President Tokayev used the Kazakhstan–Bavaria Technology Forum to call for deeper cooperation in advanced manufacturing, critical materials, microelectronics/semiconductors, agriculture and logistics, including a partnership program with Bavaria’s chips ecosystem. Agriculture Trade: Kazakhstan and Germany agreed to expand agricultural cooperation as bilateral trade rose 23% in 2025 and kept growing in 2026, with plans for investment, localization and higher-value projects. Mining & Metals: Kazakhstan and Germany discussed joint copper deep-processing, recycling and remanufacturing, including cooperation between Tau-Ken Samruk and Aurubis. Logistics Investment: Rhenus plans 14 terminals along the Middle Corridor to connect Central Asia logistics with Europe networks. Aviation Upgrade: Airbus will deliver Kazakhstan’s second A400M airlifter soon, expanding transport and humanitarian cargo capacity. Energy/AI Angle: An AI strategist argues Kazakhstan should treat AI as “statecraft,” focusing on governance and infrastructure decisions early.