AGP Executive Report

Caspian Safety Upgrade: Kazakhstan’s Ministry of Emergency Situations took delivery of a DAMEN Fast Crew Supplier 2710 to speed search-and-rescue and oil-spill response in the Caspian as navigation conditions worsen. Energy Security & Sanctions Risk: Kazakhstan confirmed the Kondensat refinery will process Russian crude by rail, keeping 30% of gasoline/diesel for domestic needs and exporting 70% back to Russia, with the owner said to be off sanctions lists. Refining Disruptions: A voltage drop briefly hit the Shymkent Oil Refinery, but output stayed on track after power was restored; separately, a fire at the Atyrau refinery was extinguished with no injuries. Power Grid Tensions: The fallout from the Aug. 14 blackout continues, with Kazakhstan saying the trigger was the shutdown of Kyrgyzstan’s Toktogul HPP units, while a final commission review is pending. AI for Transport: Kazakhstan is rolling out AI tools to forecast airline routes and improve transport planning, aiming to strengthen its role as a regional logistics hub. Digital Payments Shift: Virtual cards now lead among active users, and QR payments have overtaken card payments at POS terminals, signaling a move toward smartphone-first retail payments. Robotics Spotlight: Kazakhstan’s BULAN team won a national stage and then earned a special award at ABU Robocon 2026 in Hong Kong, marking a return after a seven-year gap.

Oil Export Routes: Kazakhstan’s Energy Minister Yerlan Akkenzhenov backed the Baku–Supsa pipeline as a “vital alternative” after CPC attacks, saying Kazakhstan lost about 3.5 million tons and could redirect volumes via Aktau and the pipeline. Oil Output Cuts: Kazakhstan will lower its 2026 oil production target to 96mn tons, down from 98mn, citing CPC drone attacks and postponed maintenance. Transit Disruption: Kazakh oil transit via Russia’s Druzhba pipeline will stay suspended for the next three months, with Transneft showing zero volumes in the received plans. Refining Moves: Kazakhstan’s Kondensat refinery will start processing Russian crude after an official request, with 30% of products sent back to Russia. Gas & Power Reliability: After a southern blackout, the PM ordered measures to prevent repeat outages; plans include new generation (including a 1,000 MW combined-cycle plant in Turkestan) and grid upgrades. Industrial Planning: Kazakhstan is assessing potential sites for a new oil refinery, with feasibility work led by Samruk-Kazyna and a final location decision expected before year-end. Energy Forecasts: The government will review the 2027–2029 socioeconomic forecast and heating-season preparations, including repairs across power plants and grid modernization. Trade & Growth Outlook: Kazakhstan’s baseline forecast points to 5%+ average real GDP growth in 2027–2029, led by non-oil processing, construction, and logistics.

Fuel Shock in Central Asia: Ukrainian drone strikes on Russian refineries are triggering fuel shortages and price spikes in Kyrgyzstan and Tajikistan, where Russia supplies most petroleum products, pushing governments to curb exports and subsidize costs. Kazakhstan-Serbia Investment Push: Tokayev and Serbian President Vučić exchanged calls after Kazakhstan’s Qurultay vote, with both sides flagging new joint projects in energy, transport, logistics, agriculture and digitalization. Kazatomprom Outlook: Kazatomprom says the era of “cheap” uranium is fading as demand accelerates and utilities shift toward long-term contracting, while costs remain under pressure. SCO Green Agenda: SCO members are positioning clean energy and environmental tech as growth engines, with examples ranging from wind power in Kazakhstan to waste-to-energy in Kyrgyzstan. Digital Leap: Kazakhstan is moving to faster AI rollout in transport and smart-city style infrastructure, with officials citing 2026 as the Year of Digitalization and AI. Kurultai Politics: Kazakhstan’s ruling Adilet party won a large share in the Kurultai election, consolidating presidential power amid concerns about limited genuine opposition. Regional Connectivity: Kazakhstan’s role in Eurasian transit remains in focus as Central Asia explores fintech and digital financial connectivity.

SAF Push for Aviation Decarbonization: KBR won a contract from KazMunayGas-Aero and KazFoodProducts to license Swedish Biofuels’ PureSAF® tech and deliver proprietary engineering for Kazakhstan’s first sustainable aviation fuel plant, using an alcohol-to-jet process and aiming to plug domestic agricultural feedstocks into low-carbon fuel chains. Refining Reliability: KazMunayGas says refinery maintenance has been adjusted to avoid localized fuel shortages, including longer cycles at Shymkent and extended intervals at Pavlodar and Atyrau, alongside plans to expand Shymkent capacity to 12m tons/year and Pavlodar to 9m. Transport Digitalization: The government is rolling out AI-enabled systems across roads, rail, and aviation—covering video surveillance, e-Joldar road monitoring, and Smart Cargo single-window tracking to speed border clearance and cut carrier waiting times. Water Infrastructure Automation: Kazakhstan is automating and reconstructing irrigation canals with digital water-accounting and billing tools, digitizing thousands of water bodies to strengthen water security. Labor Market Snapshot: Wage jobs rose to 20.82m in February (+292k y/y), with gains led by health and social welfare and accommodation/food services, while construction and manufacturing lagged. Uranium Supply Advantage: Kazakhstan’s uranium output and delivery scale keep it a hard-to-replicate supplier for Asia, Europe, and the Americas as global demand is projected to surge.

Kurultai Elections: Kazakhstan opened more than 10,400 polling stations for the first vote to the new 145-seat unicameral Qurultay, with voting from 7:00 to 20:00 and 79 stations abroad in 61 countries; turnout was reported at 17.96% by 10:00, and 777 international observers are monitoring. Digital State Push: President Tokayev said the country has completed the first phase of building a digital state and is moving to a second phase where digitalization and AI must work for citizens and business, including in rural areas. EU Partnership & Logistics: Tokayev and EU leaders discussed strengthening the Kazakhstan–EU strategic partnership, with transport and logistics ties highlighted as a priority. Nuclear Exports: Rosatom said it is building 28 nuclear power units abroad and has agreements for 17 more, with Kazakhstan listed among the countries in the pipeline. Energy Security Angle: Kazakhstan’s electricity deficit plans remain in focus, with expectations of new capacity coming online to support a shift toward surplus. Tourism Boost: Kanye West’s mid-August concert reportedly brought about $11M to Kazakhstan, lifting hotel demand to nearly 98% around the show dates.

Elections & Governance: Kazakhstan kicked off voting for the first Kurultai elections under the new constitution, with 10,400+ polling stations open nationwide and 79 abroad, as citizens choose among seven parties for the 145-seat unicameral parliament. Leadership & Reform: President Tokayev said it’s too early to discuss whether he will seek another term, while pointing to a “large construction site” agenda and noting a vice president appointment is due within 7–10 days. Energy Security: Kazakhstan targets ending its electricity deficit by 2027, expecting new capacity additions in 2026 and a projected shift toward surplus. Investment Climate: S&P upgraded Kazakhstan’s sovereign ratings to BBB/A-2 with a stable outlook, citing resilient growth and fiscal/external buffers. Industry & Trade Links: Singapore’s Senior Minister Lee Hsien Loong announced official visits to Astana/Almaty and then Uzbekistan, highlighting expanding cooperation in areas like digital integration and business ties. Cross-border Commerce: Horgos’ China-Kazakhstan border center is boosting cross-border e-commerce with foreign live-streamers, reinforcing logistics-driven retail growth.

Sovereign Upgrade: S&P Global raised Kazakhstan’s long- and short-term ratings to BBB/A-2 (stable outlook), citing resilient growth and strong fiscal/external buffers—good news for financing conditions and investor confidence. Renewables Push: Kazakhstan quadrupled renewable energy’s share over six years, with officials pointing to new wind, solar, hydro and biogas capacity plus plans to keep adding projects. Water Investment Boom: Water-sector investment hit a record 677 billion tenge, funding reservoirs, canals and modernization, with international support and digitalization plans. Transport Connectivity: Kazakhstan resumed regular flights to Arkalyk after a 30-year gap, while new routes and fares aim to boost mobility and business links. Cross-Border Trade Tech: Horgos on China’s side is booming with Kazakhstan-linked cross-border e-commerce as foreign live-streamers sell products via the border cooperation center. Industrial Diplomacy: Kazakhstan and Azerbaijan discussed expanding the Trans-Caspian route and non-resource exports, with more industrial cooperation and investment on the agenda. Energy Forecasting with AI: Kazakhstan plans to use AI to improve renewable power generation forecasting accuracy. Elections & Stability: Kazakhstan held its first vote for the new unicameral Kurultai under the updated constitution, with leadership messaging focused on stability and reform. Regional Culture & People-to-People: Astana hosted the ASEAN Summer Festival 2026, drawing 1,000+ visitors and highlighting trade, tourism and cultural ties.

Kazakhstan–Azerbaijan Trade & Industry: Kazakhstan’s foreign ministry says Astana and Baku discussed expanding non-resource exports, industrial cooperation, and transit via the Trans-Caspian International Transport Route, alongside reforms ahead of the Aug. 23 Kurultai vote. Energy & Power Planning: Kazakhstan targets ending the electricity deficit by Q1 2027 and reaching sustained surplus by 2029, but new demand from data centers could absorb capacity fast. Nuclear Cooperation: Rosatom is moving to serial assembly of nuclear power units and says it has agreements for additional projects including Kazakhstan, while Uzbekistan and Kazakhstan also deepen nuclear safety dialogue. Digital Economy: Kazakhstan’s e-commerce keeps climbing—3.77 trillion tenge spent online in 2025, with marketplaces driving most sales. Tax & Cross-Border Services: Kazakhstan collected 178.8 billion tenge via “Google tax” (VAT from foreign online sellers), led by Temu-linked payments. People & Skills: Kazakhstan plans to double PhD stipends over 3–4 years and enroll first students at a new AI university as AI education expands. Regional Logistics: Kazakhstan’s role in Eurasian connectivity remains in focus as transit and transport ties across the Caspian and Central Asia keep tightening.

Nuclear Industry: Rosatom is moving to serial assembly of nuclear power units, with 28 reactors under construction across nine countries and additional agreements covering projects including Kazakhstan—aiming to cut build times and costs via standardized “conveyor” designs. Energy Planning: Kazakhstan says it will eliminate the electricity deficit by Q1 2027 and reach sustained surplus by 2029, but new demand from data centers could absorb part of the margin fast. AI & Education: Kazakhstan is doubling PhD stipends (to 252,000 tenge/month, then another doubling in 3–4 years) and expanding AI education from school to a first intake at its AI university. Digital Economy: Kazakhstan’s e-commerce hit 3.77 trillion tenge in 2025, with marketplaces driving 86% of online retail sales. Tax & Online Trade: “Google tax” VAT collected from foreign online sellers reached 178.8 billion tenge in 2025, led by Temu-linked firms. Agriculture Tech: Kazakhstan and FAO discussed digital tools to monitor farms using UAV data and improve forecasting. Elections & Media Climate: Ahead of the Aug. 23 Kurultai vote, rights groups report pressure on journalists via criminal cases, travel bans and court-ordered restrictions. Trade & Logistics: Kazakhstan joined the Pax Silica initiative while also signing China’s WAICO, raising questions about compatibility as US-China AI supply-chain pressure grows. International Business: A China-Central Asia trade expo opened in Almaty, with nearly 300 booths across 6,000 sq m.

AI & Industry Modernization: Kazakhstan is pushing AI into its economic modernization plan, backing it with computing infrastructure, skills, startups and Kazakh-language tech, with 2026 set as the Year of Artificial Intelligence and Digital Development. Geopolitics for Tech Supply Chains: The US is reportedly preparing an ultimatum for 35 countries in its AI pact, warning that Kazakhstan and others must choose between US and China-led AI initiatives tied to supply chains and critical minerals. Cybersecurity: Bitdefender reports “SilkParasite,” a China-nexus cyberespionage campaign using Google Drive as a command channel and targeting government bodies across Central Asia, including Kazakhstan. Agriculture & Trade Risk: Russia detected quarantine pests in imported tomatoes from Belarus, Turkey and Kazakhstan, including ToBRFV and South American tomato moth, triggering shipment rejections and disinfestation. Energy & Grid Resilience: A Central Asia blackout highlighted how power-system strain can ripple across transport and telecoms; Kazakhstan plans major capacity additions to support future demand. Mining & Investment Links: Oman’s Solidcore talks in Kazakhstan focused on the Ertis POX facility and a stable investment climate, with new Oman-Kazakhstan cooperation steps. Politics: Kazakhstan will hold elections for a new unicameral parliament with seven parties competing for 145 seats as Tokayev reshapes the political system.

Power Reliability & Grid Risk: Kazakhstan says it will fully cover domestic electricity demand by Q1 2027, after the Aug 14 Central Asia blackout exposed fragile cross-border flows and left parts of Almaty affected. Renewables Forecasting: Samruk-Energy will launch an AI system by end-2026 to forecast wind generation with up to 80% accuracy, aiming to cut scheduling losses as capacity expands. Critical Minerals Strategy: President Tokayev urged faster development of Kazakhstan’s critical-minerals processing and domestic expertise, with instructions to boost exploration, labs, and remove administrative barriers. Middle Corridor Logistics: Kazakhstan plans to finish the Moyynty–Kyzylzhar railway by end-2026, cutting Middle Corridor distance and easing congestion, but Caspian port transfers remain the key bottleneck. Oil Export Pressure: Kazakhstan’s crude rerouting shows how CPC and Black Sea disruptions keep squeezing export options, with cargoes shifting toward Novorossiysk after earlier drone-related halts. Industry Digital Push: Kazakhstan begins construction of its first Robotics & AI complex and is also rolling out AI education from school to university. E-commerce Growth: Online retail hit 3.7 trillion tenge in 2025, with marketplaces and faster delivery/dark-store expansion reshaping consumer habits. Energy Investment Pipeline: Kazakhstan expects to add 845 MW of new power capacity in 2027 and is discussing further electricity capacity buildout to end the deficit.

AI Education Push: Kazakhstan plans to enrol the first cohort at its Qazaq AI Research University in Astana (600 students in 2026-27), with AI also rolling into admissions and proctoring. Power & Utilities Modernization: Kazakhstan is funding energy and utilities upgrades, including 13 mln tenge for modernization and plans to add 845 MW of new power capacity in 2027, alongside major school and rural healthcare construction. Energy Security & Grid Reliability: Kazakhstan reports 4.1m tonnes of coal stockpiled for the heating season and details on power outages tied to Central Asian grid disruptions. Oil Refining Output: Atyrau Oil Refinery targets higher crude processing (toward 6.1m tonnes) and more gasoline, diesel and jet fuel via extended turnaround measures. Rare Earths Development: Lindian Resources says Kangankunde in Malawi stays on track for first rare earth monazite concentrate production in Q4 2026, with commissioning late October and practical completion in November. Defense Tech: Kazakhstan held SHAIQAS-2026, testing domestic UAVs/UGVs and cybersecurity with military and industry teams. Agriculture Trade: Kazakhstan is buying $13.6m of dairy products from Kyrgyzstan, highlighting cross-border food supply links. Logistics & Shipping Safety: Kazakh and Dutch foreign ministers discussed international shipping safety and energy supplies to Europe. Mining & Infrastructure: Kazakhstan continues coal and infrastructure buildouts, while also advancing plans for waste-to-energy and logistics hubs.

Defense Tech & Industry Skills: Kazakhstan ran SHAIQAS-2026, its first national military engineering championship, testing domestic UAVs and UGVs plus cybersecurity and tactics with 17 teams from armed forces, universities, engineering schools and industry. Robotics Manufacturing Push: A QAZBOT Technologies forum in Astana highlighted humanoid robotics and “Embodied AI,” with plans to localize solutions and train engineering talent for wider economic use. Energy Infrastructure Update: Atyrau Oil Refinery is raising crude processing capacity toward 6.1mn tons annually via an extended turnaround plan, while KMG urged strict deadline adherence and more digital tech use. Mining & Nuclear Supply: Ortalyk Mining Enterprise launched a new stage at the Zhalpak uranium mine, targeting higher surface processing capacity and strengthening Kazakhstan’s nuclear fuel base. Agribusiness & Imports: Kazakhstan’s North regions plan to import over 6,000 head of breeding livestock from Australia under a 2026-2030 livestock development plan. Cybersecurity Risk: Bitdefender reported a China-nexus espionage campaign (“SilkParasite”) using multiple RAT families to target government bodies across Central Asia, including Kazakhstan. Logistics & Trade Links: Qatar Chamber discussed boosting trade and investment cooperation with Kazakhstan, while Air One helped move an oversized gas turbine to Kazakhstan via Aktau. Regional Disruption Watch: Shipping attacks have effectively halted over 97% of Russia-Ukraine grain export capacity in the Azov/Black Sea basin, pushing up global wheat prices and affecting Kazakhstan-linked grain routes. Power Grid Fallout: A Central Asia blackout blamed on a Toktogul hydropower generator shutdown triggered outages across Kazakhstan and neighboring countries, with officials trading blame.

Petrochemicals Push: Kazakhstan plans a new alkylate plant in Pavlodar (35.5 bln tenge), targeting 97,600 tons/year and commissioning in Q4 2027 to boost high-octane fuel supply and petrochemical value. Coal Security: Kazakhstan has stockpiled 4.1 mln tons of coal for the heating season, with a digital tracking system and expanded rail wagons to keep deliveries steady. Waste-to-Energy Rollout: PM Bektenov backed an Almaty waste-to-energy project with Hunan Junxin (145 bln tenge), aiming to process 2,000 tons/day, cut CO₂ by 200,000 tons annually, and free landfill space—plus plans for similar plants in other cities. Industrial Momentum: New data shows manufacturing driving growth while mining slows; textiles, pharmaceuticals, fabricated metals, and machinery repair are among the fastest movers. Trade Shift: Exports rose faster than imports in Jan–Jun 2026, with non-resource and processed goods gaining share in key markets. Infrastructure & Transport: Kazakhstan is modernizing road checkpoints and preparing highways for autumn-winter maintenance under the Center-West project. Energy Grid Dispute: A Central Asia blackout’s origin is linked to a Toktogul hydropower plant generator shutdown, triggering cascading flow changes across Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, Uzbekistan, and Tajikistan. AI Geopolitics: Kazakhstan is caught between US and China AI frameworks, as Washington signals countries may face compatibility pressure.

Sulfuric Acid Push: Kazakhmys and CNCEC signed a deal in Zhezkazgan to build and modernize a sulfuric acid plant at the Zhezkazgan copper smelter, aiming for 99% process-gas capture and tighter environmental controls. Special Economic Zones: Kazakhstan’s Saryarka SEZ expansion plans three new subzones (Balkhash, Karkaraly, Bukhar-Zhyrau) to pull in about KZT90bn in investment and create 2,000 jobs, with tourism and industrial projects in focus. Infrastructure Funding: Tokayev-directed recovered assets now back 500 regional infrastructure projects worth KZT617.7bn, including water supply, healthcare, transport (like Balkhash Airport upgrades), education and sports facilities. AI Talent Pipeline: Kazakhstan will open its first AI university in September (QAIRU), targeting 600 students/trainees, while AI use expands in schools via pilots. Energy Grid Fallout: Kyrgyzstan clarified the Central Asia blackout’s trigger: a short shutdown of generators at Toktogul HPP that shifted power flows and activated emergency controls. Oil & Shipping Pressure: Black Sea disruptions continue as a Greek-run tanker was attacked after loading Russian-origin cargo near CPC/Novorossiysk, underscoring risks to Kazakhstan-linked crude exports. Customs Digitalization: Turkmenistan and Kazakhstan launched electronic pre-arrival customs data exchange to speed clearance and reduce border processing delays.

AI Alliance Pressure: Reuters reports the US will tell Kazakhstan and 34 other countries they must choose between the US-led Pax Silica and China’s WAICO, with Kazakhstan already signed to both—raising a direct risk for its critical-minerals role. Minerals Scrutiny: 54 House Democrats warn Trump’s critical minerals deals (including Kazakhstan) lack transparency and may enrich insiders, while exposing US taxpayers to loans and guarantees. Renewables Buildout: Kazakhstan commissioned seven new RES facilities (50MW wind in Kostanay; multiple 20MW solar and 22.6MW solar projects across Mangystau, Zhetysu, and Kostanay; plus 20MW wind in Karaganda). Finance for Industry: Astana Finance Days 2026 (Sept 9-10) expects 5,500+ participants and will focus on capital markets, regulation, and financing the real economy. Carbon Market Opening: Kazakhstan opened 5.2m hectares of non-forested land for carbon projects, targeting forestry, agriculture, and efficiency investments. Agri Support: Over 650bn tenge is allocated to farmers via Ken Dala programs, with funding already disbursed for spring work across millions of hectares. Oil Export Risk: Kazakhstan’s oil export share fell to 46.5% in 1H 2026 as CPC disruptions continue amid Black Sea tanker attacks. Logistics Expansion: SolitAir launched its first Dubai–Bishkek cargo charter, extending its Central Asia footprint beyond Kazakhstan.