AGP Executive Report

Air Connectivity Boost: Cathay Pacific plans cargo flights to Astana from Aug. 1 and passenger service between Hong Kong and Almaty from Jan. 2027, aiming to tighten Kazakhstan’s trade and logistics links. Energy & Trade Pressure: Kazakhstan is tightening border controls and extending petroleum export restrictions to curb “gasoline tourism” as Russia’s fuel crunch worsens amid drone strikes. Crypto Reform: Kazakhstan is drafting a voluntary disclosure mechanism to legalize previously held or mined cryptocurrencies via licensed providers, targeting operation by end-2026. Agro-Industry Exports: Kazakhstan’s agro-industrial exports hit $3bn in four months, with agriculture output and food production growth supported by concessional financing and veterinary upgrades. Water & Infrastructure: Kazakhstan and Germany advance water conservation cooperation, with plans to scale projects after pilots and a broader push to invest over 3 trillion tenge in the water sector. EAEU Logistics Rules: The EEC Council backed Kazakhstan’s request to extend deadlines for navigation seals, easing compliance until Jan. 1, 2028. Industry Partnerships: Kazakhstan and Japan move forward on a $3.7bn pipeline of cooperation, while METLEN and Kazakhstan discuss metallurgy and critical raw materials. Governance Update: Kazakhstan’s new Constitution is framed as the start of systemic transformation, with implementation and legislation alignment now the key task.

Fuel Security & Border Enforcement: Kazakhstan tightened border controls on Russian fuel “tourism,” adding checkpoints and limiting crossings to one per day as gasoline shortages and drone-linked refinery damage in Russia spill into Central Asia. Energy Disruption: Ukraine’s deep drone strikes hit Russian “shadow fleet” tankers in the Sea of Azov, aiming to cut gasoline deliveries to Crimea and worsen shortages. Water & Infrastructure: Kazakhstan and Germany agreed to expand water conservation projects, with plans to scale efforts across southern regions; Kazakhstan also plans major water-sector investment. Industry & Investment: METLEN and Kazakhstan discussed metallurgy, critical raw materials, circular economy steps, and EU-linked water-energy-climate cooperation. Agro-Industry Exports: Kazakhstan’s agro-industrial exports reached $3bn in four months, supported by rising processed output and livestock-focused financing. Crypto Regulation: Kazakhstan is preparing a voluntary disclosure mechanism to legalize previously held cryptocurrencies via licensed providers, targeting operation by end-2026. Tech & Education Links: University of Arizona and Kozybayev North Kazakhstan University expand joint programs, while Kazakhstan’s AI pavilion and international education ties keep growing. Diplomacy & Nuclear Oversight: Tokayev and Trump discussed economic cooperation and reaffirmed Kazakhstan’s stance on nuclear nonproliferation and IAEA safeguards. Regional Logistics: EEC Council backed Kazakhstan’s navigation-seal timeline extension to 2028, easing compliance costs for cargo tracking.

Fuel Security & Sanctions: Ukraine escalated its Crimea isolation push by striking eight Russian “shadow fleet” tankers in the Sea of Azov, targeting gasoline deliveries and worsening shortages. Border Enforcement: Kazakhstan moved to curb fuel smuggling by deploying 59 checkpoints along the Russia border as the regional fuel squeeze deepens. Agribusiness: Russia’s watchdog asked Kazakhstan to suspend food sunflower exports until Jan 1, 2027, alleging illegal shipments of planting seeds disguised as food. Energy & Industry Links: Kazakhstan and South Korea will set up a rare metals research center in Almaty at Satbayev University to advance processing of rare and rare-earth materials. Mining Development: Cove Kaz Capital began site preparation at Northern Katpar tungsten deposits ahead of definitive feasibility work. Logistics & Trade Costs: Middle Corridor container shipping from China to Europe via Kazakhstan rose sharply, with tariffs up nearly $500 over four months. Nuclear Supply Chain: India’s NTPC floated a tender to find overseas uranium mining assets, explicitly including Kazakhstan, as it targets major nuclear capacity growth. Policy & Diplomacy: Tokayev reaffirmed Kazakhstan’s stance on nuclear nonproliferation and IAEA cooperation in a call with Trump.

Alatau City Push: Kazakhstan PM Olzhas Bektenov ordered faster rollout of the new Alatau city special regime, with a long-term plan to 2055 and master plan to 2040, plus smart-city projects like an AI-driven city, digital twin and crypto ecosystem—aiming to mobilize 2 trillion tenge across 53 investment projects and 51,000 jobs. Energy Safety at Home: A deadly gas-cylinder blast in Shchuchinsk has reignited debate over Kazakhstan’s fragmented gas distribution, leaving about a third of residents relying on cylinders despite vast reserves. Rail/Legal Dispute: The AIFC Court revoked an enforcement order tied to Naftogaz’s $1.4bn arbitration claim against Gazprom, citing lack of jurisdiction, while Naftogaz continues enforcement efforts in Kazakhstan. Finance/Markets: Kazakhstan Temir Zholy filed for a Hong Kong listing, adding to HKEX’s growing pipeline of foreign issuers. Regional Macro: The ADB kept Kazakhstan’s 2026-2027 growth and inflation forecasts unchanged, while warning of weaker regional conditions. Uranium Demand Signal: India’s NTPC is tendering consultants to find overseas uranium mines, naming Kazakhstan among target countries. Space-Tech Spotlight: NASA astronaut Anil Menon will launch from Baikonur in Kazakhstan on July 14 for an eight-month ISS mission.

Energy Security & Fuel Flows: Ukraine says it has disrupted Russia’s fuel supply enough to force imports, while drone strikes hit Russia-linked “shadow fleet” tankers in the Sea of Azov, raising pressure on gasoline deliveries to Crimea. Kazakhstan Border Fuel Crackdown: Kazakhstan denies claims that drones targeting Russia’s Omsk refinery were launched from its territory, as Astana tightens controls to curb gray fuel exports. Gas Infrastructure Push: PM Bektenov orders tighter weekly monitoring for major gas processing and transport projects at Kashagan and Karachaganak and across regions, linking delivery speed to energy security and investment appeal. Water Sector Modernization: Kazakhstan’s water digital system is now operational, and the government flags schedule slippage in regional projects while scaling reservoirs, canals, and water-saving tech. Critical Minerals Processing: Kazakhstan signs a $107m deal with the UK’s Maritime House to boost rhenium processing, while talks with Metlen Group focus on advanced metal processing and circular-economy waste recovery. Investment Climate & Digital Industry: Constitutional reforms are framed as improving legal predictability for investors, and Kazakhstan’s IT services market hits a record ₸2.9tn in 2025. Transport & Logistics Ambition: Kazakhstan moves ahead on a 27-year BOT deal to build a logistics terminal at Iran’s Shahid Rajaee Port, aiming to extend trade access toward the Persian Gulf despite rising regional risks. Industrial AI Cooperation: A Belt and Road industrial AI training program in Shanghai included Kazakhstan participants and showcased AI-enabled manufacturing and automation. Market Watch: AIFC Court revokes an enforcement order tied to Naftogaz’s arbitration claim against Gazprom over gas transit.

Fuel Security & Border Controls: Kazakhstan tightened fuel export controls after Russia’s refinery crisis spilled into Central Asia, including a one-entry-per-day rule for vehicles from neighboring countries to curb “grey” fuel smuggling. Energy War Spillover: A Chevron-chartered tanker used for Caspian Pipeline Consortium shipments (Yasa Polaris) was hit by a drone off Russia’s Black Sea coast; Kazakhstan said its exports were not affected. Digital Health & AI: Astana Hub launched MedHub HAQ, a nonprofit platform to accelerate medical AI in Kazakhstan and Central Asia using anonymized data and a medtech startup accelerator. Crypto Regulation Push: President Tokayev signed a decree to ease stablecoin cross-border payments and offer income-tax relief to retail traders, aiming to pull crypto business into a regulated market. Industrial Logistics & Trade Routes: Kazakhstan plans a logistics terminal at Iran’s Shahid Rajaei port under a 27-year BOT deal, boosting access to Persian Gulf and beyond. Cybersecurity: Kaspersky flagged the Armored Likho campaign using BusySnake malware targeting government and electric power organizations in Russia and Kazakhstan. Agriculture Checks: Kyrgyzstan blocked 1.7 tons of Kazakh melons over phytosanitary violations.

Crypto Regulation Push: President Tokayev signed a decree to ease stablecoin cross-border payments, offer income-tax relief for retail crypto traders, and allow miners to burn unneeded gas for power—aimed at pulling crypto activity into a regulated Kazakhstan. Fuel Border Crackdown: Kazakhstan introduced a one-entry-per-day rule for cargo and passenger vehicles from neighboring countries to curb “gray” fuel exports amid Russia’s diesel and gasoline crunch. Regional Energy Spillover: Kazakhstan is weighing Kyrgyzstan’s request for gasoline supplies while extending its own fuel export ban until May 2027, as Central Asia faces early winter fuel stress driven by Russian supply limits. Oil Infrastructure Under Strain: A drone attack hit the Chevron-linked Yasa Polaris tanker near Russia’s Black Sea coast; Kazakhstan exports via CPC Blend were reported as not disrupted. Mining Enforcement: Karaganda court sentenced three people for illegal ore mining, with damage to the state exceeding 2 billion tenge. Industry Growth Signals: Steppe Cement reported a 43% jump in 1H26 revenue on higher volumes and price gains, while expanding capacity toward 2.5Mt by 2027. Copper Deal Abroad: Solidcore Resources agreed with Oman’s MDO to develop the Khabiyat copper-gold project, marking Solidcore’s first exploration venture outside Kazakhstan. AI Showcase: Kazakhstan unveiled its AI pavilion at the UN AI for Good summit in Geneva, pitching Astana Hub incentives and GovTech/data-center initiatives.

Fuel Security: Kazakhstan’s Energy Ministry says it doesn’t expect shortages of fuel and lubricants despite Russia’s supply crunch, citing formed reserves and border measures to curb exports. Gas Expansion: KMG plans to nearly double commercial gas output to 4.5 bcm by 2030, with new volumes tied to Rozhkovskoye, Zapadnaya Prorva and Tsentralny Urkhtau projects. Gas Infrastructure: The government outlined a 2025–2029 gas development plan and a 2035 hydrocarbon roadmap, plus timelines for Kashagan and Karachaganak gas processing plants and pipeline upgrades. Gasification Push: Kazakhstan targets raising gasification coverage from 64.2% to 80% by 2035, supported by the Ishim–Astana pipeline and dozens of projects. Logistics & Trade: Kazakhstan will build a logistics terminal at Iran’s Shahid Rajaee port under a 27-year deal, aiming to strengthen the North–South corridor and access Persian Gulf and beyond. Middle Corridor Boost: Kazakhstan Railways launched a circular China–Russia rail route via Kazakhstan, with turnaround time around 20 days and container support along the way. Oversight & Budget: The Supreme Audit Chamber reports 128 billion tenge recovered in H1 2026 and new rules to tighten budget forecasting and treasury control. Digital Assets: A presidential decree sets measures to develop Kazakhstan’s digital asset industry, including infrastructure, investment climate steps, and clearer regulation for trading platforms.

Kazakhstan Energy & Gas: Kazakhstan says construction of the Kashagan gas processing plant (1 bcm/year) is 61.4% done and aims to finish construction and installation by end-2026, while work on the Beineu–Bozoi–Shymkent pipeline second line is ramping up with pipe deliveries to the Chinese border expected soon. Fuel Security: Kazakhstan is considering supplying gasoline to Kyrgyzstan after receiving an official request, while also extending tighter fuel export controls via a draft order to protect domestic supply through mid-2027. Trade & Ports: Despite regional tensions, Kazakhstan plans a private-investment terminal at Iran’s Bandar Abbas (about 15 hectares) to ship via Aktau–rail–Turkmenistan, targeting access to India, the Persian Gulf and Southeast Asia. Industry Finance & Growth: The EDB forum in Almaty drew 700 delegates and approved a 2027–2031 strategy focused on transport/logistics, high-value industries and attracting international capital. Mining & Metals: Minerals Development Oman signed a partnership with Kazakhstan’s Solidcore Resources to explore and develop a copper project in North Al Batinah, with Solidcore able to earn up to 60% via milestone-linked investment. Corporate/Markets: Steppe Cement reported 1H revenue up 43% to KZT 29.59bn as volumes and delivered prices rose. Governance: Kazakhstan’s constitutional court ruled President Tokayev can seek a new term under the new constitution, resetting the clock; snap parliamentary elections are set for Aug. 23.

Kazakhstan Fuel Security: Kazakhstan tightened border controls to stop illegal fuel exports, blocking 61 attempts over two days (3+ tons) and increasing checks on gas stations and mini-refineries, while a draft order would extend the gasoline export ban to May 2027. OPEC+ and Oil Market: OPEC+ agreed to raise output by 188,000 bpd in August, including Kazakhstan, as Brent slips below $72 and Hormuz shipping improves—good news for supply, but a reminder of price volatility. Cyber Risk: Kaspersky flagged the “Armored Likho” APT targeting government and electric power organizations, with victims including Kazakhstan, using spear-phishing and credential-stealing malware such as BusySnake. Industrial Diplomacy: At INNOPROM 2026, PM Olzhas Bektenov highlighted Kazakhstan’s push for deep processing, advanced materials, and high-tech manufacturing, offering incentives like Altyn Visa and one-stop project support. Trade Connectivity: China-Kazakhstan logistics activity hit a milestone: the Lianyungang logistics base handled its 8,000th international freight train, sending auto parts to Uzbekistan. Aviation Showcase: COMAC debuted a C909 medical aircraft at the Kazakhstan-China Commodity Exhibition in Almaty, signaling a bid for specialized aircraft export demand.

Fuel Export Crackdown: Kazakhstan is tightening control over gasoline and fuel exports at border checkpoints, stopping 61 attempts to ship fuel in extra tanks/canisters (over 3 tons) and increasing scrutiny of gas stations and mini-refineries amid “gasoline tourism” concerns; the government also plans to extend the gasoline export ban through May 2027. Oil Market Shockwaves: OPEC+ agreed to raise August output by 188,000 bpd, including a Kazakhstan increase, pushing oil prices down and keeping supply uncertainty tied to the still-partial recovery of the Strait of Hormuz. Industrial Cooperation: At Innoprom 2026 in Yekaterinburg, Kazakhstan and Russia reported 122 of 177 planned industrial cooperation projects implemented (about $22.4bn), spanning engineering, metallurgy, chemicals, and construction materials. Lithium Processing Push: Kazakh scientists tested a method to recover lithium from low-grade ore via carbothermic smelting, aiming to boost critical-minerals processing capacity. Logistics Milestone: China-Kazakhstan (Lianyungang) Logistics Cooperation Base handled its 8,000th international freight train, sending auto parts toward Uzbekistan. Border Trade & Compliance: Kazakhstan’s fuel-market monitoring also includes risk-based checks on tank trucks and fuel trucks, with deeper inspections ramped up in border areas.

Energy Policy: OPEC+ confirmed a new August production increase of 188,000 bpd, including Kazakhstan, as the group continues phasing out voluntary cuts from 2023 while keeping flexibility to pause or reverse further steps if markets shift. Market Impact: The decision comes as crude prices ease back toward pre-Iran-war levels, with uncertainty still tied to Strait of Hormuz shipping recovery. Regional Industry & Trade: Russia’s PM Mishustin is set to address the Innoprom 2026 plenary in Yekaterinburg and hold meetings with EAEU leaders, with Kazakhstan’s PM Olzhas Bektenov among the participants—signaling continued push for cross-border industrial cooperation. Fuel Supply Pressure: Reports say Russia’s downstream strain is spilling into Central Asia, with Moscow seeking gasoline supplies from Kazakhstan after tightened export rules. Industrial Tech JV: Eni and the UK’s UKAEA signed an agreement to create the fusion-focused joint venture RH3OVA, combining UKAEA know-how with Eni’s industrial scale—relevant for Kazakhstan’s long-term energy and high-tech ambitions.

Oil & Energy Policy: OPEC+ (Saudi Arabia, Russia, Iraq, Kuwait, Kazakhstan, Algeria and Oman) agreed to raise August quotas by 188,000 bpd, continuing the gradual unwind of 2023 voluntary cuts as Strait of Hormuz shipments recover; the group stressed flexibility to pause or reverse increases and to compensate any overproduction since Jan 2024. Fuel Security & Enforcement: Kazakhstan reported 61 thwarted fuel-smuggling attempts at the border in two days, with hidden tanks and canisters seized; since the start of the year, 593 illegal export attempts were stopped (over 40,000 liters), while authorities plan to extend the gasoline/diesel export ban. Trade & Logistics: Freight along the Trans-Caspian International Transport Route rose 3.5x over five years, supported by port upgrades (Aktau, Kuryk) and a digital “single-window” monitoring system, with a target of 300,000 TEU by 2029. Water & Industry Resilience: Japan pledged $3m via UNDP to help Kazakhstan address Caspian Sea water-level decline, funding monitoring and sustainable water management to protect shipping and ecosystems. Diplomacy for Business: Armenia and Kazakhstan approved a reciprocal land-swap for new embassy buildings, signaling continued efforts to strengthen ties that can support cross-border cooperation.

Constitutional Reset: Kazakhstan’s new Constitution took effect, launching political reforms including a Vice President post and a smaller Parliament with a snap election set for Aug. 23. Fuel Market Control: Mobile groups are patrolling border highways around the clock to stop illegal fuel exports; authorities also plan to extend the gasoline export ban through May 2027 to protect the domestic market. Critical Minerals Value-Add: EBRD President Odile Renaud-Basso stressed Kazakhstan must expand domestic processing of critical raw materials, backed by calls for more transparency and a stable regulatory framework for investors. EBRD Financing for Processing: EBRD is backing Kazakhstan’s move up the minerals value chain, including a €255m loan and a $300m gold processing project to build local capacity. Digital Push: Kazakhstan showcased digital initiatives in Beijing, including progress toward a digital state and a Data Center Valley project in Ekibastuz. Caspian Water Support: Japan pledged about $3m via UNDP to help Kazakhstan tackle Caspian Sea water decline, focusing on monitoring and regional water management. Cyber Threat Watch: Kaspersky named the Armored Likho group targeting government and power-sector organizations in Kazakhstan with BusySnake Stealer phishing campaigns. U.S.-Kazakhstan Ties: Tokayev sent congratulations to Trump on America’s 250th anniversary, while Kazakhstan-Georgia talks highlighted plans to boost oil exports via the Baku-Tbilisi-Ceyhan pipeline.

Digital Connectivity: Kazakhstan showcased digital initiatives in Beijing, including progress on a digital state and a Data Center Valley project in Ekibastuz, as Central Asia–China partners pushed standards and cooperation. Pharma & Trade: Kazakhstan and India agreed to expand pharmaceutical cooperation, while talks with Gujarat’s leadership also targeted agro-industrial supplies and joint investment, including interest from Adani Group in Ekibastuz infrastructure and a modern data center. Caspian Water Security: Japan pledged a 465 million yen (about $3m) UNDP grant to help Kazakhstan tackle Caspian Sea water decline, warning of risks to logistics and ecosystems. Mining Value-Add: The EBRD backed Kazakhstan’s first large-scale refractory gold ore processing facility with a €255m loan, aiming to unlock hard-to-process reserves and boost domestic processing. Cybersecurity: A new phishing campaign by Armored Likho targeted government agencies and Russia’s power sector, with activity reported in Kazakhstan. Logistics & Connectivity: Middle Corridor coverage highlighted how Caspian crossings and the Baku–Tbilisi–Kars rail link are gaining importance amid regional disruptions. Energy & Industry: Ukraine said it disabled 43% of Russia’s refining capacity, feeding broader fuel pressure across the region. Investment Climate: Tokayev convened the Foreign Investors Council in Astana, tying constitutional reforms to an AI and digitalization push for investment.

Investment & Digital Economy: Tokayev chaired the 38th Foreign Investors Council in Astana, pitching Kazakhstan’s new constitutional reforms and a push into AI, digitalization, and diversification as proof of stability for investors. Trade & Connectivity: Almaty hosted the 21st Kazakhstan–China Commodity Exhibition with nearly 500 booths and talks aimed at expanding bilateral trade and high-tech projects. Energy & Water Security: Japan pledged about $3m via UNDP to help Kazakhstan tackle Caspian Sea water decline, focusing on monitoring and sustainable use. Mining & Value-Added Processing: EBRD backed a up-to-$300m loan for Solidcore Resources’ Ertis hydrometallurgical complex in Pavlodar to boost domestic gold processing and cut reliance on external services. Finance & Entrepreneurship: Astana’s Global Businesswomen Council announced the G-Index Institute to build research and analytics for women’s entrepreneurship, citing women’s large role in SMEs. Cyber & Critical Infrastructure: Kaspersky flagged “Armored Likho” cyber activity targeting government agencies and the electric power sector across Russia and Kazakhstan. Aviation Fuel Pressure: Reuters reported Russia is seeking jet fuel imports routed via South Korea, underscoring ongoing refinery disruption. Security/Policy Watch: Kazakhstan drafted an order to extend gasoline export bans into May 2027, with public discussion running through July 21. Tech & Crypto Infrastructure: Solana-linked entities signed on to support Kazakhstan’s $6bn Alatau City crypto and smart-city ambition. Disaster Alert: A 4.5 quake hit near Taraz, with light tremors reported locally.